Research Article | 17 Sep 2020

Statistical distribution of novel coronavirus in Iran

Elham Gholami1, Kamyar Mansori2, and Mojtaba Soltani-Kermanshahi3Show more
1. Treatment Deputy, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran.
2. Department of Biostatistics and Epidemiology, School of Medicine, Zanjan University of Medical Sciences, Zanjan, Iran.
3. Social Determinants of Health Research Center, School of Medicine, Semnan University of Medical Sciences, Semnan, Iran.

Corresponding author: Mojtaba Soltani-Kermanshahi (msoltani@farabi.tums.ac.ir)

Received: 11-06-2020, Accepted: 07-08-2020, Published: 17-09-2020

INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF ONE HEALTH | pg no. 143-146 | Vol. 6, Issue 1 | DOI: 10.14202/IJOH.2020.143-146
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Abstract

              
Background and Aim: The coronavirus disease-2019 (COVID-19) pandemic – novel coronavirus (nCoV) spread worldwide in 2019, and by March 27, 2020, 199 countries, including Iran, were affected. Prevention and control of the infection is the most important public health priority today. The behavior prediction of COVID-19 is a significant problem. Therefore, in the present research, we compared the different distribution of COVID-19 cases based on the daily reported data in Iran.
Materials and Methods: In this research, we compared the different distribution of COVID-19 cases based on the daily reported data in Iran. We focused on 36 initial data on deaths and new cases with confirmed 2019-nCoV infection in Iran based on official reports from governmental institutes. We used the three types of continuous distribution known as Normal, Lognormal, and Weibull.
Results: Our study showed that the Weibull distribution was the best fit to the data. However, the parameters of distribution were different between data on new cases and daily deaths.
Conclusion: According to the mean and median of the best-fitted distribution, we can expect to pass the peak of the disease. In other words, the death rate is decreasing. Similar behaviors of COVID-19 in both Iran and China, in the long run, can be seen. Keywords: coronavirus disease-2019, distribution, infection, Weibull.

             
Keywords: coronavirus disease-2019, distribution, infection, Weibull.